Time to Leave the Louvre

As the threat of terrorism escalates, the world attaches great importance to emergency evacuation plans to popular destinations. But now the world could take a break from being concerned about the Louvre’s emergency evacuation plan because our ICM team has developed an emergency evacuation model to have all occupants leave the Louvre as quickly and safely as possible.

In order to develop an emergency evacuation model, we considered five parts: (a) Making pre-arranged plans and choose one from the evacuation begin; (b) calculating the shortest path for each visitor; (c) developing the emergency evacuation model combing the factors of the shortest path and crowd congestion situations; (d) optimizing models and producing a dynamic model; (e) explaining how to use the models in real-world situations.

In terms of part (a), based on the analytic hierarchy process, we developed a pre-arranged plan model providing three options for managers, as well as determining the number of exits on the basis of the particular cases.

In terms of part (b), firstly we rasterized the internal structure of the Louvre. After that, using the Dijkstra algorithm and the ant colony algorithm, we made specific improvements according to the Louvre's multi-source and multi-outlet conditions. For the Dijkstra algorithm, we set up the virtual node to simplify the problem from the multi-outlet to the single-outlet. For the ant colony algorithm, we produced a wonderful table and magic table to store the calculated distances and optimize the heuristic objective function. In the end, we calculated the results through MATLAB.

In terms of part (c), we alternated the goal to obtain the minimum evacuation time. Through the model Evacuation time =Running time + Waiting time + Delay time, we carry out a parameter-by-parameter analysis and refinement.  

In terms of the part (d), based on the model above, we made error analysis and sensitivity analysis and then upgraded this model to a dynamic model.

• At the end of the paper, we identified the strengths and weaknesses of our models and suggested applying our models to other complex structures.

• According to site planning and traffic estimation, the pre-arranged plan model could be applied to help the organizer plan strategies immediately through the results of its relevant analysis system and absolute analysis system.

• Based on the shortest path model, we can obtain the escape route of each exhibition hall in advance, and then synthesize the tourist flow to create the escape route map for different exhibition and place it in the obvious position of each exhibition hall.

• Combined with smart wearable devices, exhibition hall broadcasts, some mobile software, shortest path, and congestion, the emergency evacuation model can iteratively find the shortest evacuation path for different users and display updates in time in the mobile software to guide people to evacuate.

 

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process; Ant colony algorithm; three-dimensional grid map; crowd congestion 

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Full Paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qKZ1-KPpY7Bba-GIrBOgjQvMcgRqbVCa/view?usp=sharing